Unchartered Territory

In “The 2023 State of the Climate Report: Entering Unchartered Territory” Bioscience recently made the gloomy prediction that society could collapse this century.

The respected journal is now updating its climate report annually on our climate change emergency and in its latest report it concludes humanity has made minimal progress in addressing the changes needed to avert the siege our Earth is under, and the resulting extreme climatic conditions.

The report lists sobering facts:
1) the continued dominance of fossil fuels in the world
2) a 9.7% decline in global tree cover loss equal to 22.8 million hectares per year
3) three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all at record levels
4) increased ocean acidity
5) hotter surface sea levels, and
5) ice sheets melting in the polar regions at unprecedented rates.

In a series of three articles published in Dive Pacific last year I covered the key facts affecting New Zealand’s state of the environment, particularly its oceans. A year ago, my article, ‘COP26, a copout or..?' discussed the goal agreed to by the 120 countries that attended the conference: to keep average global temperatures below a 1.5 degree C average rise for our planet. 1.5 degrees C was considered a tipping point. Now, one year on, they say 2023 will go down as the hottest year ever recorded in Earth’s history with the average temperature higher than a 1.5 degree C temperature rise on 86 days. We thought we had until 2030 to adjust. It turns out we are already nearly at that tipping point.

In New Zealand we can take some teeny-weeny gratification from achieving lower emissions for the third year in a row. Our emissions, currently at 76.8 million Tonnes of carbon dioxide, dropped between 2021 and 2022 by 0.7%. A similar figure was recorded for the previous two years. We are moving in the right direction. But looking at where the gains have been made, the picture seems precarious. Agricultural emissions fell by 1.5% due to fewer dairy cattle and sheep, and the use of less synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. Transport emissions grew by 0.3%, the waste sector cut emissions by 1.6%, and forestry rose by 3% due to high harvest rates of plantation forests. Hardly an overall downward trend; more of a mixed bag of ups and downs. The year before, 2020, resulted in lowered emissions primarily due to reduced activity during Covid-19. So we managed something, but it seems a drop in the bucket.

What is the likelihood of achieving our pledge to the COP26 agreement to ‘cut gross 2005 emissions by 50 percent in net terms by 2030’? The Guardian in the UK may have us summed up in an article published on 12 October by Eva Corlett titled, ‘Shocking Silence over climate crisis in New Zealand election campaign draws criticism.’ Forest and Bird chief executive Nikola Toki said there was a “real disappointing lack of leadership across the political spectrum in response to climate control.” Then there was the grit lacking answer both Luxon and Hipkins came up with in one of the Leaders’ debates: When asked what they were doing personally to change their lifestyle they both said they were recycling.

The polls during the recent election highlighted our priorities as the cost-of-living, crime, housing, health care, and the economy. Climate change rated sixth. While these priorities are enormously important, if our only planet goes into a tailspin due to our inability to halt emissions, they will surely rate a lowly second in the battle to merely stay alive. Because we are well down the road towards mass extinctions, acid oceans, widespread collapse of environments and species, food shortages and disease. So, are we seeing the bigger picture or are we like ostriches with our heads in the sand?

In the last few years we have started hearing about what’s called the Anthropocene Epoch which is an unofficial annotation of recent geologic time that is recording the impact of human activity on the planet’s climate and ecosystems. At the same time scientists have started referring to The Great Acceleration, the period since the 1950s, as humans significantly change our planet through the release of carbon dioxide resulting in global warming, ocean acidification and habitat destruction.

Elizabeth Kolbert in her Pulitzer Prize winning account, “The Sixth Extinction, An Unnatural History” points out the importance of making the right decisions right now. She writes “…in the amazing moment that to us counts as the present, we are deciding without quite meaning to, which evolutionary pathways will remain open and which will forever be closed. Unfortunately, it will be our most enduring legacy.”  

We cannot expect politicians to do everything even though their leadership is vital. It will take all of us staying actively involved in this historic turning point. Here are some suggestions on what we can do as citizens in 2024:
1) Change from ICE (internal combustion engines) to electric. Transport emissions account for 20% of all emissions.
2) Ask your elected MP to stick to our Paris agreement commitments to lower emissions to net zero by 2050 and achieve the decrease in rates set out in the Climate Change conference by 2030.
3) If you voted Act or NZ First, ask they not disestablish the Climate Change Commission as they have said they will. The commission’s independence is vital to help New Zealand transition to a low emissions economy and plays an important watchdog and communications role.
4) If you voted National, advise them to retain the clean car rebate. NZ had the third highest uptake in the world of transfer to EVs since the rebate was brought in 2 years ago when aaverage emissions from newly registered vehicles dropped 33%. The scheme has also increased the range of options and prices for clean car vehicles. Auckland University Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning Timothy Welch warns the impact from cutting the clean car discount on road safety and emissions reduction could be significant.
5) If you are a businessperson or farmer, even if the incoming government lowers hardline objectives to invest in mechanisms that reduce emissions on your farm or business, push for achieving those anyway. Your kids will thank you.
6) For entrepreneurs and innovators there are golden opportunities to come up with new ways of living in a low carbon world.

In this year’s Bioscience Climate Report the scientists say, “It is the moral duty of us scientists and our institutions to clearly alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action.”
We all need to respect what our scientists are telling us and take heed of them.

On Earth here we have a splendid summer to look forward to, and to marvel again at “Wild New Zealand” - we surely live in paradise. Let’s give paradise the best chance we can.